Royal LePage Forecasts Healthy Price Appreciation for Luxury Real
Estate in the Greater Toronto Area, Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa
Toronto, February 21, 2019
– The median price of a luxury property in the Greater Toronto Area,
Greater Montreal Area and Ottawa saw healthy price appreciation over
twelve months ending January 31, 2019 compared to the previous twelve
month period.
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Luxury condominiums in the Greater Toronto Area posted the highest
year-over-year price appreciation, rising 10.2 per cent to $2,268,571,
followed by luxury condominiums in the Greater Montreal Area, which rose
8.4 per cent year-over-year to $1,295,401.
“For a second year in a
row, luxury condos in Toronto and Montreal have made significant gains
in price appreciation and we expect this trend to continue through 2019,
however, at a more modest pace in Toronto,” said Kevin Somers, Chief
Operating Officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Limited.
Across
Canada’s five largest cities, Greater Vancouver was the only city to
post a decline in median luxury home prices. The number of luxury houses
trading hands declined over the past two years, a trend that initially
began with the introduction of measures to cool the city’s real estate
market in 2016. Luxury home values have dipped but remain remarkably
steady as many Vancouverites refuse to sell at what they perceive as a
discount. Exasperating soft demand, Chinese nationals, an important
luxury buyer demographic, have seen restrictions placed on their ability
to transfer wealth to Canada.
While sales remained low throughout
2018 in Greater Vancouver, luxury house sales in the Greater Toronto
Area decreased a more modest 3.6 per cent year-over-year from June 1,
2018 through January 31, 2019. However, as a result of low sales
activity during the 2018 spring market, luxury house sales in Greater
Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area declined 50.5 per cent and 40.0
per cent, respectively, during the twelve month period ending January
31, 2019. During the same period, luxury condominium sales in Greater
Vancouver decreased 32.2 per cent, while luxury condominiums in the
Greater Toronto Area decreased 3.4 per cent.
“Compared
to last year, we are expecting an increase in luxury sales activity in
both Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area,” said Somers.
“Price reductions and increased selection in Greater Vancouver are
expected to stimulate the luxury property market while an expected
return to more normal activity in the Greater Toronto Area will be a
marked improvement over last year’s spring market.”
Greater Toronto Area
The
median price of a luxury condo in the GTA outpaced luxury houses and
condos in Canada’s five largest cities; Significant year-over-year
decline in luxury house sales was limited to the 2018 spring market
Luxury
house prices in the Greater Toronto Area returned to healthy gains
indicating that the effects of measures targeting foreign buyers within
the Ontario Fair Housing Plan have now been absorbed by the luxury
property market. While foreign buyers represent a small segment of
buyers in the GTA, the introduction of the measures had stifled consumer
confidence among local buyers dampening house prices.
The median
price of a luxury house rose 3.1 per cent to $3,575,702 year-over-year
during the twelve-month period ending January 31, 2019 compared to the
same period the previous year. Meanwhile, the median price of a luxury
condominium surged 10.2 per cent year-over-year to $2,268,571 during the
same period, which was the highest median price gain seen in both
luxury housing types across Canada’s largest five cities.
“While
demand for luxury houses softened last spring, demand for luxury
condominiums remained consistent and strong. This demand quickly put
upward pressure on luxury condo prices because the inventory for luxury
condo buyers isn’t there. We have a shortage of luxury three bedroom
listings with the finishes and amenities that buyers are looking for,”
said Elli Davis, sales representative, Royal LePage Real Estate Services
Ltd.
Luxury house sales for the full twelve-month period showed a
stark contrast leading up to and during the spring market compared to
the remainder of the year, while luxury condominium sales remained
fairly consistent compared to the prior year. For the twelve months
analyzed, luxury house sales decreased 40.0 per cent, however, when
examining sales from June 1, 2018 to January 31, 2019 to the same period
the year prior, sales decreased a more modest 3.6 per cent. For the
full twelve-month period, luxury condominium sales decreased 3.4 per
cent compared to the year prior.
“Toronto’s luxury home market has
regained its momentum and we are expecting a more active spring market
than last year with the exception of a few quiet pockets,” said Davis.
“Generally speaking, demand for luxury property is stronger in the city
of Toronto compared to its surrounding areas.”
When looking to the
next twelve months, the median price of a luxury house in the Greater
Toronto Area is forecast to increase 3.2 per cent year-over-year to
$3,691,700, while the median price of a luxury condominium is forecast
to increase 5.4 per cent to $2,390,405 at the end of January 2020.
Luxury house sales are expected to benefit from a more active spring
market while luxury condominium sales are expected to be consistent with
the year prior.
Greater Montreal Area
Luxury condominium sales outpace luxury detached house sales in the GMA.
The
Greater Montreal Area’s luxury property market showed continued
momentum in both prices and sales mirroring its healthy economy and
overall real estate market. The median price of a luxury house rose 5.4
per cent to $1,680,942 year-over-year during a twelve-month period
ending January 31, 2019 compared to the same period the previous year.
Meanwhile, the median price of a luxury condominium surged 8.4 per cent
year-over-year to $1,295,401 during the same period.
Among the
factors that are impacting luxury prices and sales in Montreal, low
inventory ranks first in the luxury detached market according to
Marie-Yvonne Paint, real estate broker, Royal LePage Heritage.
“Provincial
measures to dampen foreign buyer activity in Toronto and Vancouver have
increased demand for luxury property in Montreal, but this demand is
mostly seen within the downtown condo market,” said Paint. “We are
seeing an increase in demand for presale condo units where investors
will buy several units to benefit from a discount.”
During the
twelve months ending January 31, 2019, the Greater Montreal Area’s
luxury house sales climbed 21.4 per cent year-over-year, while luxury
condominium sales in the region surged 28.9 per cent, outpacing the
detached luxury segment.
While the luxury condominium market is
showing exceptional strength, there is still an excellent selection of
listings available, with approximately 350 resale units available in
February 2019.
For buyers looking to purchase their first luxury home, Montreal has a lot to offer.
“As
a first-time luxury home buyer, the Montreal luxury condo market offers
great diversity. Developers are building condos based on the city
population, family status and household wealth, often reserving about 30
per cent of their building for luxury units. This is perfectly suitable
for those wanting to enjoy luxury living with typical condo amenities
and lower maintenance fees. Condominiums that are predominantly luxury
units often have significantly higher fees because there are fewer units
and more luxury amenities,” added Paint.
When looking to the next
twelve months, the median price of a luxury house in the Greater
Montreal Area is forecast to increase 6.6 per cent year-over-year to
$1,792,037, while the median price of a luxury condominium is forecast
to increase 7.7 per cent to $1,395,056 at the end of January 2020.
Greater Vancouver
Region’s median home prices for both luxury houses and condominiums dip after sustained low sales activity
In
the twelve-month period ending January 31, 2019, the median price of a
luxury house in Greater Vancouver decreased 1.7 per cent year-over-year
to $5,751,928, while the median price of a luxury condominium decreased
0.6 per cent to $2,680,064. Despite ongoing year-over-year low sales
volume, luxury home prices were steady leading up to September 2018. In
the last four months of 2018 and into 2019, sellers who were no longer
able to wait out low demand began accepting reduced offers, which put
downward pressure on home prices.
“We have a growing number of
buyers sitting on the sidelines watching prices, but they are also
concerned about the unpredictability of government regulation and
whether right now is the best time to buy,” said Brock Smeaton, sales
representative, Royal LePage Sussex.
Sales of luxury houses
declined for a second year, decreasing 50.5 per cent year-over-year
during the twelve-month period studied while luxury condominium sales
decreased 32.2 per cent year-over-year.
“Luxury properties in
Greater Vancouver are softening in price, but the lower-end luxury
market is faring better than the upper-end,” added Smeaton. “For buyers
considering the city’s most luxurious properties, it is a great time to
buy in terms of price and selection.”
When looking to the next
twelve months, the median price of a luxury home in Greater Vancouver is
forecast to decrease 7.1 per cent year-over-year to $5,341,936, while
the median price of a luxury condominium is forecast to decrease 3.7 per
cent to $2,580,115. Sales are forecast to increase modestly as price
reductions and excellent selection of inventory are expected to
stimulate market activity.
Calgary
Calgary’s luxury house market forecast to see modest price appreciation
The
median price of a luxury house in Calgary increased 3.2 per cent to
$2,012,676 year-over-year during the twelve months ending January 31,
2019. Meanwhile, the median price of a luxury condominium remained
relatively flat, rising 0.5 per cent year-over-year to $903,106 during
the same period.
“While Calgary’s luxury condo market is still
showing some softness, our luxury house market has stabilized after
years of sustained low prices,” said John Hripko, associate broker,
Royal LePage Benchmark. “However, some of the median price appreciation
gain can be attributed to a relatively healthier upper-end luxury
property market while price reductions to lower-priced luxury properties
have pushed some listings out of the luxury category.”
During the
twelve-month period ending January 31, 2019, sales of luxury houses
increased 10.3 per cent from the year before, while condominium sales
decreased 18.6 per cent.
“Overall, Calgary’s luxury home market
today is very different from the days when the price of oil was near its
peak, however, there is still good demand for luxury houses in central
communities on the south-side such as Elbow Park, Mount Royal and
Brittania, among others,” said Hripko. “It’s been years since Calgary’s
luxury home prices first corrected and listing prices typically reflect
current market value.”
When looking to the next twelve months, the
median price of a luxury home in Calgary is forecast to increase 1.3
per cent year-over-year to $2,039,564, while the median price of a
luxury condominium is forecast to modestly decrease 0.6 per cent to
$898,047. Sales for both luxury houses and condos are forecast to be
flat.
Ottawa
Ottawa’s luxury home market forecast to continue to appreciate after a year of healthy price gains and sales
Ottawa’s
luxury home market posted a second year of healthy price appreciation
during the twelve months ending January 31, 2019. The median price of a
luxury house in Ottawa increased 5.0 per cent year-over-year to
$1,811,716 compared to the same period the previous year. Meanwhile, the
median price of a luxury condominium increased 3.8 per cent
year-over-year to $1,005,549 during the same period.
“While the
typical luxury buyer in Ottawa is usually a local buyer who will live in
the property, there is a strong sentiment among buyers that Ottawa’s
luxury home market is a sound financial investment,” said Charles
Sezlik, sales representative, Royal LePage Team Realty. “The local
economy is doing well, spurred by our booming technology sector, which
is creating both wealth and jobs in the region. In addition to a growing
buyer demographic, Ottawa’s luxury home market is benefitting from
healthy consumer confidence.”
Sezlik added that compared to luxury
home prices in other Canadian major real estate markets, Ottawa still
has considerable room to grow.
“The lower end of the luxury market
is very competitive. A good listing in a good location will not stay on
the market long,” said Sezlik. “Luxury properties priced over 2 million
had a slower start at the beginning of 2018 but demand quickened in the
second half of the year. We are seeing this demand continue through the
start of 2019 and expect another year of healthy sales and price
appreciation.”
During the twelve months ending January 31, 2019,
Ottawa’s luxury house sales were flat year-over-year, however, luxury
house sales more than doubled compared to two years prior, rising from
26 sales to 60 sales.
When looking ahead, the median price of a
luxury house in Ottawa is forecast to increase 4.2 per cent
year-over-year to $1,887,624, while the median price of a luxury
condominium is forecast to increase 3.1 per cent to $1,036,747 in the
next twelve months.
Luxury real estate segment price appreciation in Canada’s five largest cities (.pdf)
About the Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Properties Market Release
The
Royal LePage Carriage Trade Luxury Properties Luxury Market Release
provides information on the two most common types of luxury housing in
Canada using lower thresholds of three times the median value of each
segment relative to the overall property type’s median home value in
that city. Real estate values use company data in addition to data and
analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the
trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in
Canada. Commentary on real estate markets are provided by Royal LePage
residential luxury real estate experts, based on their opinions and
market knowledge. Sales data is compiled by Royal LePage through the
Toronto Real Estate Board, Greater Montreal Real Estate Board, Real
Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, Ottawa Real Estate Board and Calgary
Real Estate Board.
Lower thresholds used for detached luxury
homes: Greater Toronto Area ($3,092,476), Greater Montreal Area
($1,235,266), Greater Vancouver ($4,705,050), Calgary ($1,669,041), and
Ottawa ($1,420,331). Lower thresholds used for luxury condominiums:
Greater Toronto Area ($1,543,909), Greater Montreal Area ($1,002,778),
Greater Vancouver ($1,979,978), Calgary ($875,285), and Ottawa
($890,253).
About Royal LePage
Serving
Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading provider of
services to real estate brokerages, with a network of more than 18,000
real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide. Royal
LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own
charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to
supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs
aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real
Estate Services company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the
symbol TSX:BRE.
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