Cooling of Canada’s Hottest Real Estate Markets Delayed Again
Canada’s residential real estate market posts strongest growth in five years in the second quarter of 2016
Central bankers expected to keep interest rates lower for longer in light of Brexit and global uncertainty
TORONTO, July 13, 2016 – Canada’s residential real
estate market continued to show strong appreciation in the second
quarter of 2016, posting the highest national year-over-year gain seen
in five years, according to the Royal LePage House Price Survey
[1]
and Market Survey Forecast released today. Amid continued world
economic uncertainty, the historically low interest rate environment
that has fueled Canada’s real estate market growth in recent years –
most notably in Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) –
is expected to continue longer than anticipated. This extended period
of low-cost borrowing will in turn further delay the cyclical cooling of
Canada’s hottest real estate markets, originally forecasted for the
second half of 2016.
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite, compiled from
proprietary property data in 53 of the nation’s largest real estate
markets, shows that the price
[2]of
a home in Canada increased 9.2 per cent year-over-year to $520,223 in
the second quarter of 2016. During the same period, the price of a
two-storey home rose 10.7 per cent year-over-year to $619,671, the price
of a bungalow increased 7.9 per cent to $437,121, and the price of a
condominium increased 4.2 per cent to $348,189. Looking ahead to the
remainder of 2016, Royal LePage forecasts that the aggregate price of a
home in Canada will increase 12.4 per cent when compared to year end
2015.
“Our forecasting models, which pointed to a slowing housing market as
the year progressed, included a modest increase in the cost of
borrowing,” said Phil Soper, president and chief executive officer,
Royal LePage. “Economic and social disruptions have rocked the world
once again, introducing new risks and making it very likely that the
Bank of Canada will leave interest rates as-is for now. Few industries
are as rate sensitive as real estate. We don’t see even a mild
correction for either the Toronto or pistol-hot Vancouver markets in
2016.”
“Our call for 12.4 per cent national price appreciation in the final
quarter of this calendar year as compared to the final quarter of last
year, is a landmark in Canada. I believe it is the highest value put
forward by any serious forecasting agency since the turn of the
century,” added Soper.
On June 23, 2016, Britons voted to leave the European Union,
surprising financial markets worldwide. The British currency plummeted
and the value of equities around the world swung wildly. Adding to
economic uncertainty is an uncharted road ahead for decoupling the U.K.
from the E.U., a process which some have predicted could take two years.
This added dimension of uncertainty will encourage central bankers in
Canada and abroad to keep rates lower for longer.
“Some have suggested that Britain’s exit from the E.U. will drive
more foreign money into the relative safety of Canada’s real estate
markets,” said Soper. “We anticipate the impact, if any, will be seen
in the commercial property sector and not in housing markets. Beyond
Europe, our research does point to increasing Vancouver and Toronto
region foreign buyer
[3] activity in residential markets this quarter. Canada remains a favoured nation for the world’s real estate investors.”
According to a survey
[4]
of Royal LePage real estate advisors working within these regions, 71
and 74 per cent said that year-over-year home purchases by international
buyers have increased in the second quarter in the GTA and Greater
Vancouver, respectively. Still, 35 and 37 per cent of respondents
believe that foreign ownership accounts for less than 10 per cent of the
GTA and Greater Vancouver housing markets, respectively.
“At Royal LePage, we see residential real estate as a long-term
investment supporting family life. A home is ill-suited as a
buy-and-flip investment. People that engage in this kind of activity
are inevitably burned when a market slows and the time it takes to sell
the property increases substantially. We applaud the efforts of all
levels of government to better understand Canada’s housing market,
through a coordinated effort to gather and analyze real estate data.
Still, we remain convinced that heavy-handed use of tax policy in an
effort to artificially influence asset values in an open-market economy
like ours is fraught with peril, particularly in a cyclical industry
like housing,” concluded Soper.
Provincial and City Summaries & Trends
Since the 2014 collapse of oil prices and the subsequent drop in the
value of the Canadian dollar, the nation’s economy has been dominated by
growth in British Columbia, Ontario, Manitoba and Quebec – the four
provinces most tied to the finished goods and services export sector,
and by extension, to the health of the U.S. economy. The negative impact
of the downturn in the resource sector, in contrast, remains
concentrated in Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Newfoundland
and Labrador. Across the country, provincial economic trends can be
seen influencing residential real estate market performance in most
cities.
British Columbia’s economy has outperformed the balance of the
country for two years running and is expected to continue doing so into
2017. This economic strength is echoed in the province’s housing
market. In the second quarter,
Greater Vancouver
posted an aggregate year-over-year home price increase of 24.6 per cent
to a median price of $1,098,599. During the same period, the city of
Vancouver posted a year-over-year gain of 27.5 per cent to $1,330,531,
while surrounding areas such as West Vancouver and Richmond posted even
higher increases of 29.7 per cent and 28.3 per cent to median prices of
$3,093,776 and $972,443, respectively.
Manitoba has been cited as one of the provinces that will outpace the national economy in 2016 and 2017
[5].
This is attributed mainly to its strength in a diverse set of
industries such as agriculture, health sciences, transportation,
manufacturing and business services, rounding off the edges of some of
the would-be effects of the commodities downturn. In
Winnipeg,
the aggregate price of a home increased by a moderate 2.0 per cent in
the second quarter to a median price of $285,358, with the detached
two-storey home category posting the highest year-over-year price gain
of 3.7 per cent to $314,589.
Ontario is expected to be one of the fastest growing provinces in
2016, with employment growth running at twice the national average so
far this year. Very strong U.S. employment growth in June should once
again stimulate Ontario’s export sector, after a tepid performance in
the second quarter, as more American businesses look to Canada for
affordable goods and services. The
GTA, the province’s
largest market, saw notable year-over-year home price appreciation of
10.2 per cent to a median price of $656,365, while home price
appreciation in the city of Toronto remained in-line with recent
quarters, rising 8.4 per cent to $680,096. Surrounding suburbs such as
Richmond Hill, Whitby and Oshawa continued to outpace home price
appreciation in the core, posting year-over-year aggregate home price
gains of 21.3 per cent, 17.1 per cent and 16.7 per cent, to $992,632,
$547,304 and $409,452, respectively. Meanwhile, in the nation’s capital
home prices remained steady in the second quarter, with the aggregate
price of a home in
Ottawa increasing 2.3 per cent to a median price of $401,288.
Strength in exports to the U.S. is expected to continue to support
provincial growth in the remainder of the year in Quebec. Last month
Fitch Ratings revised its outlook for the province from “negative” to
“stable”, citing Quebec’s diverse economy as a key strength. An
increase in full-time jobs and renewed stability and confidence in
Quebec’s economy is being reflected in the province’s residential
housing sector, particularly in the Montreal region. In the second
quarter, the aggregate price of a home in the
Greater Montreal Area
increased by a healthy 3.5 per cent year-over-year to $344,620, while
the aggregate price of a home in Montreal Centre rose 4.9 per cent to a
median price of $416,953. This is indicative of a transition in the
region, which is currently seeing a trend toward a seller’s market in
the two-storey home segment, and a balanced market for other property
types.
The Conference Board of Canada has projected that Alberta’s economy
will dip 2.0 per cent this year as a result of the sharp pullback in
drilling and capital investment in the energy sector, along with the
impact of the Fort McMurray fires. Despite economic setbacks,
residential real estate prices in the region have not seen the
depreciation many onlookers had expected. In the second quarter, the
aggregate price of a home in
Calgary decreased 1.8 per cent year-over-year to $454,790, while the aggregate home price in
Edmonton dipped 1.2 per cent to $377,337.
Like Alberta, Saskatchewan is being hit by weakness in the energy
sector, with more than 9,000 residents having dropped out of the
workforce altogether. As a result, home prices in the province’s major
centres have posted slight declines. According to the Royal LePage
National House Price Composite, the aggregate price of a home in
Saskatoon slipped 0.2 per cent year-over-year to $370,125, while the aggregate home price in
Regina decreased slightly, falling 1.7 per cent to $323,612.
Atlantic Canada saw mixed results in the second quarter, with
Fredericton posting the highest year-over-year aggregate home price appreciation at 3.8 per cent to $235,425, with
Moncton close behind, rising 3.0 per cent to $193,154. Despite a rosier economic prognosis than its Atlantic neighbours,
Halifax home prices remained flat year-over-year in the second quarter at $298,753.
St. John’s
was the only Atlantic city in the Composite to report an aggregate
price decline, with the price of a home decreasing 1.5 per cent
year-over-year to $336,131 amid a regional economic downturn brought on
by the fall in oil prices. Meanwhile, powered by agriculture and
tourism, Prince Edward Island’s economy is expected to grow slightly
quicker than the national average according to most forecasters,
although the residential real estate market has remained relatively
flat, with the aggregate home price in
Charlottetown rising 0.7 per cent year-over-year to $223,087 in the second quarter.
“Canada is not one homogeneous housing market, but rather a mosaic of
many different real estate stories,” stated Soper. “While low interest
rates remain the primary driver of Canada’s sustained real estate market
expansion, home price trends are increasingly influenced by local
factors, from the lift provided by wealthy immigrants to the drag felt
by the depressed energy sector,” explained Soper. “The two regions that
have provided pleasant surprises have been the oil-impacted regions
where home values have been remarkably resilient. And in Quebec, where
the broad-based recovery story continues, with Montreal homes
experiencing healthy price increases for another consecutive quarter.”
“Southern Ontario continues to see substantial year-over-year home
price appreciation, with robust sales activity and price growth in both
Toronto proper and in the region’s other urban centres, with no
immediate sign of slowing down,” said Soper. “It is completely fair to
describe the price increases we have experienced in the Toronto market
as healthy; Vancouver is a different story altogether. Canada’s most
expensive market is distancing itself from the rest of the country at
such a rapid rate that housing affordability has become a major public
policy issue.”
“The quest for affordability in Vancouver seems to be influencing
consumer housing type choices,” continued Soper. “Alongside
skyrocketing prices of single-family homes, we have seen an uptick in
the rate of price appreciation for condominiums over 1,000 square feet,
when compared to smaller units in this market. This may indicate that
families being priced out of the single-family detached home market in
Vancouver are looking upwards to condominiums. In the GTA, this trend
has not yet taken hold, suggesting that buyers are still predominantly
moving ‘out’ to surrounding regions, versus ‘up’, in search of
relatively affordable housing options,” concluded Soper.
Aggregated regions and the Royal LePage National House Price Composite (.PDF)
Canadian Housing Trends 2016 Market Survey Forecast (.PDF)
About the Royal LePage House Price Survey
The Royal LePage House Price Survey provides information on the three
most common types of housing in Canada, in 53 of the nation’s largest
real estate markets. Housing values in the House Price Survey are based
on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, produced quarterly
through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from
its sister company, Brookfield RPS, the trusted source for residential
real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing
and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real
estate experts, based on their opinions and market knowledge.
About Royal LePage
Serving Canadians since 1913, Royal LePage is the country’s leading
provider of services to real estate brokerages, with a network of over
16,500 real estate professionals in more than 600 locations nationwide.
Royal LePage is the only Canadian real estate company to have its own
charitable foundation, the Royal LePage Shelter Foundation, dedicated to
supporting women’s and children’s shelters and educational programs
aimed at ending domestic violence. Royal LePage is a Brookfield Real
Estate Services Inc. company, a TSX-listed corporation trading under the
symbol TSX:BRE.
For more information visit:
www.royallepage.ca.
For further information, please contact:
Gwen McGuire
Kaiser Lachance Communications
416-948-6500
gwen.mcguire@kaiserlachance.com